Graduation Rates 2024: Post-Pandemic Recovery?

The academic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic left parents, educators, and policymakers asking one critical question: Have we recovered? As the Class of 2024 receives their diplomas, early data indicates a complex reality. While raw graduation percentages in some states have returned to or exceeded pre-pandemic levels, underlying indicators like test scores and college readiness suggest the recovery is uneven and fragile.

The National Picture: Stabilization vs. Inflation

When analyzing the most recent datasets leading into 2024, the national high school graduation rate appears to be stabilizing. Prior to the pandemic, the national average hovered around 86%. Following the disruption of 2020 and 2021, rates fluctuated wildly due to policy changes rather than academic performance.

During the height of the pandemic, many states relaxed graduation requirements. They waived exit exams, allowed pass/fail grading, and offered credit recovery options to ensure students did not fall behind due to remote learning technicalities. Now, as schools return to standard grading policies, the numbers are shifting again.

The ACT Score Discrepancy

A major concern for 2024 is the widening gap between graduation rates and actual academic preparedness. While more students are graduating, fewer are proving they are ready for college-level work.

• ACT Scores hit a low: The average composite score on the ACT for the Class of 2023 dropped to 19.5 out of 36. This is the lowest average score in more than 30 years.
• The “Paper” Diploma: Critics argue that grade inflation is keeping graduation rates artificially high. Students are receiving diplomas but lack mastery in core subjects like math and reading.
• College Remediation: Community colleges report an uptick in incoming freshmen requiring remedial courses, despite having high GPAs on their high school transcripts.

State-by-State Variability

Because the United States does not have a centralized education system, recovery looks different depending on where you live. Recent state reports released in late 2023 and early 2024 highlight this disparity.

Illinois: A Statistical High

Illinois recently reported a graduation rate of 87.6% for the Class of 2023. This stands as the highest rate the state has seen in 13 years. However, state officials noted that while graduation numbers are up, proficiency rates on standardized tests have not climbed at the same speed. This reinforces the theory that schools are prioritizing getting students across the stage over strict academic rigor.

Oregon: A Slight Decline

Oregon saw a dip in its graduation rates. The rate fell slightly to 81.3% for the Class of 2023. This decline coincided with the end of certain pandemic-era leniencies. It highlights the struggle states face as they reimpose accountability measures that were paused during the lockdowns.

Wisconsin: Holding Steady

Wisconsin maintained a high graduation rate of approximately 90%. However, the achievement gap remains a persistent issue. The disparity between white students and Black or Hispanic students continues to be a focal point for the state Department of Public Instruction.

The Silent Crisis: Chronic Absenteeism

The biggest threat to graduation rates in 2024 and 2025 is not remote learning technology, but attendance. Schools across the country are battling a massive increase in chronic absenteeism, defined as missing at least 10% of the school year.

Data from the 2022-2023 school year suggests that nearly 29.7% of students nationwide were chronically absent. In some districts, this number climbed as high as 40%. Students who miss this much school are statistically much less likely to graduate on time.

Why is attendance still down?

• Habit Disruption: The routine of daily attendance was broken for two years. Re-establishing that cultural norm has proven difficult for families.
• Mental Health: Anxiety and disengagement are cited frequently by high school counselors as reasons students avoid attending classes.
• Illness Sensitivity: Parents are more likely to keep children home for minor symptoms now than they were in 2019.

The Role of Graduation Requirements

As we move through 2024, a major factor influencing these rates is the reinstatement of high-stakes testing.

During 2020 and 2021, states like New York (Regents Exams) and Massachusetts (MCAS) modified or waived testing requirements. This naturally inflated graduation numbers because the barrier to entry was lower. As of 2024, many of these waivers have expired.

• New York: The Board of Regents is currently debating the future of the Regents exams. They are considering removing them as a graduation requirement entirely to focus on “multiple pathways” to graduation. This could permanently alter how graduation rates are calculated in the state.
• Florida: The state has tightened testing requirements again, which places pressure on the graduation rates for vulnerable student populations.

Future Outlook: The Fiscal Cliff

Another variable that will impact graduation rates in late 2024 and 2025 is the expiration of federal relief funds. The Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER) fund provided billions to schools to hire counselors, tutors, and reading specialists.

These funds are set to expire in September 2024. Schools will be forced to cut the support staff that helped at-risk students cross the finish line. Without these dedicated resources, experts predict a potential dip in graduation rates for the Classes of 2025 and 2026.

Conclusion

The data for 2024 suggests that while the United States has avoided a catastrophic drop-off in high school graduates, the “recovery” is complicated. We have successfully returned students to classrooms and kept diploma numbers high. Yet, the declining ACT scores and rising absenteeism rates indicate that the value of that diploma may be shifting. The focus for the next academic year must move beyond simple graduation rates to a more holistic view of student readiness and attendance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Has the national high school graduation rate returned to pre-pandemic levels? Yes, in terms of raw percentages, many states are reporting rates near or above the pre-pandemic average of 86%. However, test scores indicate that academic proficiency has not fully recovered.

Why are ACT scores dropping if graduation rates are rising? This is often attributed to grade inflation and relaxed graduation requirements. Students are passing classes required for graduation but are struggling on standardized assessments that measure college readiness.

What counts as chronic absenteeism? Chronic absenteeism is typically defined as a student missing 10% or more of the school days in a year. For a standard 180-day school year, this means missing just 18 days, or roughly two days per month.

Are states still waiving graduation tests in 2024? Most states have reinstated their testing requirements. However, some states like New York are actively reviewing whether to permanently eliminate exit exams as a requirement for a diploma.

How does FAFSA completion relate to graduation rates? FAFSA completion is a strong indicator of intent to continue education. In 2024, technical glitches with the new FAFSA rollout caused a significant drop in completions, which may result in fewer high school graduates enrolling in college immediately after graduation.